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Initiative Publications


Ammann C.M., J.T. Kiehl, C.S. Zender, B.L. Otto-Bliesner and R.S. Bradley: Coupled simulations of the 20th century including external forcing. Journal of Climate, (in press).

Downton M, R. Morss, O. Wilhelmi, M. Crandell, E. Gruntfest. Flood-related decisions and scientific uncertainty: Estimates of extreme precipitation in the Colorado Front Range. (In preparation).

Feddema J., Bonan G., Mearns L.O., Oleson K., Washington W., Meehl J. An evaluation of GCM sensitivity to land cover change experiments, and their potential importance to IPCC scenario simulations. (In preparation, manuscript draft 1/04).

Meehl GA, Tebaldi C, Nychka D, Changes in frost days in simulations of 21st century climate. Climate Dynamics, (in press).

Meehl GA, Washington WM, Ammann C, Arblaster JM, Wigley TML, Tebaldi C., 2004: Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings and 20th century climate. J. Climate, (in press).

Morss R., O. Wilhelmi, M. Downton, E. Gruntfest. Flood risk, uncertainty, and information for decision-making: Lessons learned from an interdisciplinary project. Proposed manuscript for BAMS.

Naveau P., M. Genton and C.M. Ammann: Time series analysis with a skewed Kalman filter. In: Genton, M. (Ed.), Skew-elliptical distributions and their applications: A journey beyond normality. 19pp., (in press).

Naveau P., and Schneider U.: Threshold selection for modeling exceedances over high thresholds. (Manuscript in preparation).

Naveau P., Jomelli V., Cooley D. and Rabatel A. Extreme value theory in lichenometry and paleoclimate. (Submitted to Quaternary Research.)

Tebaldi C, Nychka D, Mearns LO., 2004: From global mean responses to regional signals of climate change: simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results. In Proceedings of the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.

Tebaldi C, Smith RL, Nychka D, Mearns LO., Quantifying uncertainty in Projections of Regional Climate Change: a Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Multimodel Ensembles, accepted subject to revision, Journal of Climate.

UCAR Quarterly, 2004: Web Watch: Extreme Statistics: A new toolkit helps profile the far ends of weather.

Wahl, Eugene: "A General Framework for Determining Cutoff Values to Select Pollen Analogs with Dissimilarity Metrics in the Modern Analog Technique", Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology, (in press).

Wahl, E.R. and Ammann, C.: "Stationarity and Fidelity of Simulated El Niño-Southern Oscillation Climate Proxies over the Last Millenium in Forced Transient AOGCM Output". (In preparation, to be submitted to Climate Dynamics).

Wahl, Eugene, "Assigning Climate Values to Pollen Surface Sample Sites and Validating Modern Analog Climate Reconstructions in the Southern California Region", Madroño, 50:4, (in press).



Adams J.B., M.E. Mann, C.M. Ammann, 2003: Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature, 426, 274-278.

Ammann C.M., G.A. Meehl G., W.M. Washington and C.S. Zender, 2003: A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of the 20th century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12), 1657, doi:10.1029/2003GL016875.

Ammann C.M., P. Naveau, 2003: Multi-decadal periodicity in tropical explosive volcanism and its influence on climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(5), 1210, doi:10.1029/2002GL016388.

Brooks, H. E., J. W. Lee, and J. P. Craven, 2003: The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data. Atmos. Res., 67-68, 73-94.

Downton M., H. Cullen, R. Morss, O. Wilhelmi, B. Rajagopalan, 2003: Problems of climate variability and uncertainty in flood hazard planning for the Colorado Front Range. In Proceedings of the 17th Conference on Hydrology, AMS Annual Meeting, Long Beach, CA.

Gavin, Dan, Oswald, W. Wyatt, Wahl, Eugene, and Williams, John, 2003: "A Statistical Approach for Evaluating Distance Metrics and Analog Assignments for Pollen Records", Quaternary Research, 60:3, 356-367.

Lytle, David and Wahl, Eugene, "The Effect of Sample Size and Analog Threshold Levels on the Quality of Paleoclimate and Paleovegetation Reconstructions Using the Modern Analog Technique", The Holocene.

Mann, M.E., C.M. Ammann, R.S. Bradley, K. Briffa, T.J. Crowley, M. Huges, P.D. Jones, M. Oppenheimer, T. Osborn, J.T. Overpeck, S. Rutherford, K.E. Trenberth, and T.M.L. Wigley, 2003: On past temperatures and anomalous late 20th century warmth. EOS, 84(27), 256ff.

Naveau P., C.M. Ammann, H.S. Oh and W. Guo, 2003: An automatic statistical methodology to extract pulse-like forcing factors in climatic time series: Application to volcanic events. In: Robock, A. and C. Oppenheimer (Eds.): Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere. Geophysical Monograph.

Nychka N, Tebaldi C. 2003: Comment on "Calculation of Average, Uncertainty Range and Reliability of Regional Climate Changes from AOGCM Simulations via the ''Reliability Ensemble Averaging'' (REA) method" Journal of Climate: Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 883-884.

Oh, H.-S., C.M. Ammann, P. Naveau, D. Nychka, and B.L. Otto-Bliesner, 2003: Multi-resolution time series analysis applied to solar irradiance and climate reconstructions. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 65, 191-201.

Santer B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C.M. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle, W. Brueggemann, 2003: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science, 301, 479-483.

Santer, B.D., Wigley, T.M.L., Meehl, G.A., Wehner, M.F., Mears, C., Schabel, M., Wentz, F.J., Ammann, C., Arblaster, J., Bettge, T., Washington, W.M., Taylor, K.E., Boyle, J.S., Bruggemann, W., and Doutriaux, C., 2003: Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally-forced climate change. Science, 300, 1280–1284.

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NCAR Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Science Initiative